Solutions
An Alea Capta solution is your domain + our engines. In five steps — diagnose, structure, data, forecast & simulate, deliver & operate — we build a forecasting and strategy system dedicated to your field.
Bring us your domain. Our engines build the answer.
Alea Capta does not sell a fixed package. We put your domain on our engines and design and deliver a forecasting and strategy system built for that field alone. The method stays the same; for each field we redesign the ontology, the population and the strategy space.
How we work
- 01DiagnosisDiagnose
Together we define the outcome you want and the real questions that must be answered to get there.
- 02OntologyStructure
We lay out your domain’s entities, relations, rules and causal links as an ontology and knowledge graph.
- 03DataData
Missing data is created as a synthetic population or synthetic sample, and weights are tuned against the past.
- 04ForecastForecast & simulate
We compute the distribution of outcomes and the best path, and update them every time a new event comes in.
- 05DeliveryDeliver & operate
We deliver dashboards, reports, conversational AI and video, and keep calibrating against actual outcomes.
What we deliver
Predictive Simulation
We model uncertain variables such as markets, demand and public opinion to forecast how the future could unfold. By simulating each scenario on a synthetic panel that reflects real demographics, we give decisions a solid basis.
Strategy Simulation
We answer the question “what should we do?”. We simulate the effect of several strategies before they are executed, find the most favorable path, and turn variables into strategy.
Conversational AI
We help people interpret data and make decisions through natural conversation. We turn complex forecasts into language anyone can follow, and even run in-depth interviews directly with the synthetic panel.
Generative AI & Automation
AI takes over repetitive work. From optimizing schedules and routes to generating documents, video and content for each situation, we build and deliver apps and tools that automate operations.
Where it applies
- Politics & public administration
Forecasting the field and vote share, simulating policy reactions, policy chatbots and promotion videos
Cases → - Public policy
Simulating citizens’ reactions and the effect of a policy on a synthetic population before it is introduced
- Markets & demand
Modeling uncertain variables such as demand and consumer response to forecast each scenario
- Business & investment analysis
Combining commercial-district and company data with forecasts to support location and feasibility decisions
- Education
ALEA MATH, an AI math solution that finds learning gaps on a curriculum concept map
- Entertainment & brands
Conversational content and video that keep a character or IP’s face and voice consistent
Politics and public administration is the field with delivered cases; the others can be designed on the same engines.
Even if your field is not listed — we will define the problem with you and solve it with data.
Start a project- Ontology · Knowledge graph
- Synthetic population
- Monte-Carlo
- MCTS
- Kalman filter
- LLM fine-tuning
- Real-time inference
- Data pipelines
See also
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