Calibration

Tuned against the past, sharper with every use

Building the structure and filling in the data is only half the job. The map comes alive only when we know how strong each link is — its weight.

Calibration is not a single step. It is the engine that runs across the entire process of building the ontology. It checks inferred data against reality, adjusts the weight of each factor against the past, and even after the world is complete, re-tunes the whole structure to the values flowing in and out.

Here is how it works in practice. How much does each day’s event move the outcome? We compare past events with the real changes that followed and turn their influence into a score. When a new event breaks, we find the most similar past event to rate its strength, and every week we match forecasts against outcomes and re-adjust the weights.

This is why we call our ontology “alive”: it is a structure that keeps checking itself against reality and correcting itself.